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NEWS > EVERYONE ELSE > VEGAS ODDSMAKERS TAKING BETS ON WHICH DICTATOR WILL BE THE NEXT TO FALL
VEGAS ODDSMAKERS TAKING BETS ON WHICH DICTATOR WILL BE THE NEXT TO FALL
February 15 2011
Las Vegas, NV – The old adage that things often happen in threes is often accepted without challenge, particularly when things seem to do exactly that, bunched together. Often we notice that occurrence in celebrity deaths and natural disasters,
the biggest common experiences that we have in society and incidents that draw generally unreasonable levels of attention. Of course, any rationale analysis of such events would show that things do happen in threes, and fours, and fives, and so on depending on where we start counting. Still, the idea of fatalism is a pervasive idea in the human experience no matter how many times it proves faulty.
Things such as death and natural disaster are very much out of human control and as such the idea of a higher hand, be it God or fate, helps us understand those events. In the human realm however, in the manageable realm, things are different. In the tangible world we can have a real impact on the outcome of events which is why bookmakers have been so hesitant to get involved in political betting. Now however with the popular appeal of the ouster of major dictators, some odds makers in Las Vegas are getting into the game and giving odds as to which leader will be the next to fall.
“Most of the time we stay out of the international thing. We take odds on Presidential elections and the like but when it comes to these international situations we tend to stay out. Too little interest and too many variables that people don’t really understand,” said one bookmaker. “This Egypt thing though was just so big that we couldn’t ignore it anymore. With everyone saying that this thing is going to keep going, that more and more of these rulers are going to be pushed out it has become clear that this isn’t just a one off thing, that this is a real market that people are interested in betting on.”
The best odds tend to revolve around African and Middle Eastern dictators though some Europeans, such as Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, are drawing good numbers.
“The other problem with this thing is that it can be easily gamed. Odds go well in one country and people focus their efforts there, which can be done pretty easily. That carries some risk but we can adjust the odds if we something like that happening,” continued the bookmaker. “This is Vegas of course, we know a good bet when we see it. Personally, I’d be looking at countries through the Middle East but we like people like Robert Mugabe who people may be a little more willing to go up against considering his age. If I were a betting man, which I am of course, I would say that there is a lot of money to be made all around with all these dictators being pushed out.”
Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen is currently giving the best odds at 4/1.
“In Vegas just about anything can be bet on, movie grosses, marriage breakups, just about anything but this is a different thing. Generally speaking getting into politics, particularly this kind of politics where small groups of people can actively impact the results, they stay away from. However with the way things are moving there is a lot of money to be made,” said Scrape TV International analyst Gustav Hander. “The difference here is that there are people with vested interest in winning, outside the monetary issue, and that is never a safe bet, not totally. These empirical collapses aren’t natural events or prone to luck, they are active efforts by individuals and that can be risky, or at least should affect the odds. Personally, I’d go with Abdelaziz Bouteflika in Algeria but my wife would kill me if I bet.”
Barack Obama is currently at 100/1.
Emil Uliya, International Correspondent
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