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NEWS > SCIENCE > SCIENTISTS GIVE UP PREDICTING VOLCANOES AFTER FINDING IT TOO HARD
SCIENTISTS GIVE UP PREDICTING VOLCANOES AFTER FINDING IT TOO HARD
April 26 2010
Washington, D.C. – Arguably, there is no more frightening natural disaster than a volcano. Unlike tornadoes, hurricanes, or floods a volcano is a totally foreign event, something that unless one experiences it multiple times, it becomes next to 
impossible to predict your reaction. Add to that the devastating potential of aneruption and the danger posed by such events are more than frightening, they can be profoundly destructive to not only property and lives, but also to one’s sense of security.
Of course, it doesn’t help that the science of volcanoes is often as random and spotty as the events themselves with major events going unnoticed until it is far too late to help anyone. Part of that is due to certain aspects of the way the earth works that we still do not understand, and part of it is due to the fact that some events are just so sudden that no amount of science or technology can actually do anything to predict when or where they might happen. Because of that challenge, thousands of people die every year and now many scientists are taking a bold and new direction in predicting volcanoes, not doing it all. Citing the unreliable nature of much of the data and the inability to collect and disseminate it rapidly, many scientists are finding the task just too hard and will cease trying any longer.
“I can’t speak for anyone else, though I know a lot of people that are thinking the same thing, but I won’t be studying these stupid things anymore. I’ve been doing this for more than twenty years and it doesn’t get any better. We just sit and watch as the quakes happen, all of our work goes for naught, and I am done,” said Volcanologist Dr. Frank Wolton of the University of California Berkeley. “Look, it would be great if we could get it right and save people’s lives but that just isn’t happening. This year seems bad but it’s really not much worse from a sheer data standpoint. Things aren’t getting any better and it won’t get any better and now they won’t have this guy to push around anymore.”
Wolton is considered a bit of a dramatic personality amongst his peers, however many are following him out the door.
“This has been an ongoing problem for number of years. This recent high profile of volcanoes has certainly put it into the spotlight but the reality is people are walking away from the industry in droves, just unable to keep up with the pressure of constant failure. Blame the volcanoes, blame the science, but its happening whether we like it or not,” said Scrape TV Science analyst Dr. Howard Poe. “Part of the problem is that science often requires results, something measurable that investors can take away but this particular science just doesn’t have much of that. That is pushing many 
people to move into other fields where results are more quantifiable and results more consistent.”
Many in the field are apparently starting to come to the conclusion that volcanoes suck, from a research standpoint.
“Normally with this type of erosion we would have to worry about the future of the field. As word gets out not only will more people leave but fewer young people will get involved and that means eventually no one will be doing anything about volcanoes,” continued Poe. “They will just erupt and erupt and people will die and that will be the end of it. Of course it’s not like they are doing much about it now anyway, though they are still better off than the earthquake guys who are doing absolutely nothing.”
Few predicted the recent eruptions in Iceland, though that was due in part to few people wanting to travel to the country.
Anna Phillips, Science Correspondent
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